Global Escalation Monitor

Global Escalation Monitor 026: The Truce Broke. The Export System Held.

Saudi–Houthi restraint failed and Egypt authorized military support, but Gulf export adaptation still prevents a Critical alert.

Oct 28 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor 025: September’s Oil Recovery Has Not Restored Fuel Security

Usable export alternatives keep the Meridian Escalation Index at 56. Shipping losses, fuel constraints and possible new regional military participation…

Oct 21 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor 024: The Risk Is Spreading Beyond the Strait

Hormuz traffic fell again, Saudi infrastructure attacks intensified and restraint signals weakened across several theaters. The Meridian Escalation…

Oct 15 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor 023: Oil Flows Recovered. Shipping Risk Got Worse.

Gulf exports reached pre-war levels on multiple days, but repeated tanker attacks, conditional Hormuz access and renewed Yemen fighting keep the system…

Oct 6 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor 022: More Barrels Are Moving. Reliable Delivery Is Not Back.

September exports rebounded, but force majeure, indirect talks and persistent route restrictions keep delivery reliability under pressure.

Sep 29 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor — Week 39, September 2026

Oil Is Moving. Reliable Delivery Is Still at Risk.

Sep 23 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor — Week 38, September 2026

The Energy Detour Is Under Pressure

Sep 17 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor — Week 37, September 2026

The Critical Threshold Has Been Crossed

Sep 8 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor — Week 36, August / September 2026

The Critical Threshold Is Being Tested

Sep 1 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor — Week 35, August 2026

The Conflict Is Hardening Into a More Durable System

Aug 25 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor — Week 34, August 2026

The De-Escalation Window Failed. The System Is Moving Toward the Critical Edge.

Aug 19 • Meridian Signal

Global Escalation Monitor — Week 33, August 2026

The De-Escalation Window Is Narrowing

Aug 12 • Meridian Signal

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