WCIR 011 May 2026 Update 5/5 — Bitcoin
Expansion Delayed, Structure Tested
Bitcoin entered the week attempting to continue its advance toward the $80,000 region.
Instead, the market lost momentum.
Price broke below the $74K-$75K support zone, ETF flows deteriorated significantly, and stablecoin liquidity contracted. Together, these developments forced a reassessment of the short-term outlook.
The most important change was not price itself.
It was capital flow.
Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $1.42 billion in net outflows over the week, representing one of the strongest negative demand signals observed in recent months. At the same time, stablecoin liquidity declined and market sentiment remained firmly in Fear territory.
These developments pushed the Global Liquidity Pulse lower to 38/100.
From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has transitioned from an active expansion attempt into what can best be described as a failed expansion attempt and deeper range reset.
Importantly, this is not yet a breakdown of the long-term bull structure.
Several critical pillars remain intact.
Exchange supply remains historically compressed near 2.67 million BTC. Network security remains exceptionally strong, with hashrate approaching 978 EH/s and difficulty reaching 136.61 trillion. Long-term holders continue to maintain a significant portion of supply outside of liquid markets.
These factors continue to support the broader thesis that Bitcoin’s available supply remains constrained.
The issue is not supply.
The issue is demand.
Institutional flows weakened materially while liquidity conditions deteriorated. Until those variables improve, upside expansion becomes increasingly difficult.
The key area now sits between $72K and $73K.
If Bitcoin successfully defends this zone, the current structure can stabilize and eventually rebuild toward higher levels.
If it fails, a deeper reset toward the $67K-$70K region becomes increasingly probable.
Our probability framework reflects this shift.
ATH Formation Probability declines to 36%.
Bottom Formation Probability falls to 59%.
Crash Probability rises to 44/100.
The message from the market is straightforward.
Bitcoin is not broken.
Bitcoin is being tested.
For now, the market remains in a defensive posture while monitoring whether liquidity and institutional demand can recover before structural support fails.
The next several weeks will likely determine whether this becomes a healthy reset within a larger advance or the beginning of a more prolonged consolidation phase.
Until proven otherwise, Bitcoin remains structurally alive but tactically weakened
Meridian Signal
Independent Strategic Intelligence Desk
General informational analysis. Not financial advice
.