WCIR 006 April 2026 Update — Bitcoin

Expansion Is Close, But Not Confirmed

Structure is improving, supply is tight, and flows are returning — but Bitcoin still needs a clean break above $80K to confirm expansion.

WCIR — Weekly Conviction Intelligence Report (006)

• BTC trading around $78.2K

  Testing the breakout zone

• ETF flows positive

  Demand still supporting price

• Exchange supply compressed

  Structural supply remains tight

• Network strength remains strong

  Hashrate ≈ 1,032 EH/s

  Difficulty ≈ 135.6T

• Derivatives cooling

  Leverage risk reduced

• Sentiment still cautious

  No euphoria yet

• Bitcoin remains macro-driven

  Watching:

  -Liquidity

  -Yields

  -Dollar

  -Geopolitics

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WCIR Regime Clock

1. Accumulation

2. Expansion

3. Distribution

4. Contraction

Current: Late Accumulation → Attempting Expansion

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Global Liquidity Pulse: 55 / 100

Crash Probability Index: 21 / 100

Bottom Formation Probability: 78%

ATH Formation Probability: 64%

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30-Day Probability

• 40% → Range ($76K–$82K)

• 40% → Breakout above $80K

• 20% → Pullback ($72K–$75K)

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Key level: $78K–$80K

Hold → Expansion begins

Lose → Range continuation

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Bitcoin is stabilizing…

but not fully expanding yet.

Structure is improving.

Supply is tight.

Flows are returning.

But confirmation isn’t there.

This is still a macro-driven market.

Expansion comes when liquidity confirms it.

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Meridian Signal

Independent Strategic Intelligence Desk

General informational analysis. Not financial advice.