WCIR #005 April 2026 Update — Bitcoin

Bitcoin Is Stabilizing. But Expansion Isn’t Confirmed Yet

Strong ETF inflows, tight supply, and improving structure signal progress — but macro liquidity still decides what happens next.

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WCIR — Weekly Conviction Intelligence Report (005)

• BTC trading around $74.6K

  holding near the upper range after reclaiming structure

• ETF flows strongly positive

  ~$1.2B net inflows over the past week

  institutional demand is returning

• Exchange supply remains tight

  ~3.01M BTC

  supply compression still intact

• Network strength remains strong

  Hashrate ≈ 1,064 EH/s

  Difficulty ≈ 135T

• Derivatives stabilizing

  no longer driving downside

  but still sensitive below key levels

• Sentiment improving

  Fear Index: 27

  still far from euphoria

• Bitcoin remains macro-driven

  Watching:

  -Liquidity

  -Yields

  -Dollar

  -Geopolitics.

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WCIR Regime Clock

1. Accumulation

2. Expansion

3. Distribution

4. Contraction

Current: Late Accumulation → Attempting Expansion

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Global Liquidity Pulse: 52 / 100

Crash Probability Index: 24 / 100

Bottom Formation Probability: 74%

ATH Formation Probability: 59%

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30-Day Probability

• 45% → Range ($72K–$78K)

• 35% → Breakout continuation

• 20% → Rejection lower

  
  

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Key level: $72K–$74K

Hold → Expansion attempt continues

Lose → Return to lower structure

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Bitcoin is stabilizing…

but not fully expanding yet.

Structure is improving.

Flows are returning.

Supply remains tight.

But liquidity isn’t fully supportive yet.

This is still a macro-driven market.

Expansion comes when liquidity confirms it.

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Meridian Signal

Independent Strategic Intelligence Desk

General informational analysis. Not financial advice.