U.S. spot Bitcoin funds took in $440.8 million from Monday through Thursday. On Friday, investors withdrew $643.2 million, more than reversing those four sessions. Bitcoin also lost the price persistence that had supported last week’s recovery case. The evidence now favors a weaker near-term assessment, although the more severe downside test has yet to trigger.
Evidence cutoff: November 1 at 7:05:43 p.m. Pacific (November 2 at 03:05:43 UTC). The price week covers October 26 through November 1. The fund week covers the five trading sessions through October 30.
EH/s means exahashes per second; T means trillion. Weekly returns use Coin Metrics daily references. The ATH comparison uses CoinMarketCap's separate spot snapshot and historical high. These observations are not interchangeable.
The prior week can now be compared on a complete basis. Farside reports $0.0 million for VanEck HODL on October 23, an entry unavailable at the October 25 cutoff. As of November 1, the completed five-session sum is +$301.2 million and the twenty-session sum is −$365.0 million. Both match the earlier provisional display. The new information is the issuer observation itself.
Price structure
Coin Metrics’ November 1 Bitcoin daily USD reference was $78,135.08, down 2.38% from $80,038.91 on October 25. The provider’s completed UTC-day observations are used throughout that comparison. October 28 reached $81,237.44, but the next two references fell to $78,193.43 and $77,109.59. Sunday’s rebound left Bitcoin $1,864.92 below the upper trigger.
ATH and historical drawdown
CoinMarketCap’s aggregate intraday USD all-time high was $126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 at 18:59 UTC. Its captured spot of $78,328.37 was 37.93% below that high, computed from unrounded values. CoinGecko’s independently constructed USD aggregate records $126,080 on the same date at 10:57 UTC. Aggregation and sampling differ. The peak comparison uses CoinMarketCap on both sides, while the weekly return uses only Coin Metrics.
Institutional fund demand
Farside’s daily net flows, in millions of dollars, were +110.3, +176.0, +137.3, +17.2 and −643.2. On Friday, IBIT lost $233.7 million and FBTC lost $201.0 million. Together they accounted for $434.7 million of the withdrawal. IBIT nevertheless finished the week positive at +$176.9 million. A negative combined week can mask sustained demand for one fund.
The twenty-session window from October 5 through October 30 absorbed $808.5 million of net withdrawals. The September 28 through October 23 window lost $365.0 million. Fifteen sessions overlap. The $443.5 million deterioration reflects the five sessions entering and the five dropping out. These flows describe the tracked funds, not all spot buyers. No comparable exchange-balance series supports a conclusion about transfers into long-term custody this week.
Macro and liquidity
The Federal Reserve’s October 30 H.15 release places the five-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield at 2.31% on October 29, compared with 2.33% on October 22 in WCIR 032, an issue-to-issue decline of 2 basis points. Within the current release, October 23’s 2.34% to October 29’s 2.31% is a separate 3-basis-point decline. Neither comparison is a completed Friday-to-Friday week. This retains the five-year maturity used in the prior issue. As supplemental context, the ten-year nominal yield eased from 5.00% to 4.98%, and the ten-year inflation-indexed yield from 2.66% to 2.63%, between October 23 and 29. Lower yields reduced one competing-return measure, but did not establish renewed Bitcoin demand.
The October 29 H.4.1 release reports weekly-average reserve balances of $2,893.770 billion for the week ended October 28, down $68.837 billion from $2,962.607 billion in the preceding week. The Treasury General Account averaged $999.727 billion, up $47.725 billion from $952.002 billion. These are averages of daily figures, consistent with the prior issue. The separate Wednesday reserve balance was $2,895.236 billion and is not used in that weekly-average comparison. Rising Treasury cash and declining reserves leave these selected liquidity measures less supportive despite lower real yields. They do not constitute a global-liquidity model or identify money moving into or out of Bitcoin.
Across the pegs covered by DefiLlama, the sum of USD-valued circulating balances fell from $304.03 billion at October 26 00:00 UTC to $299.55 billion at November 2 00:00 UTC. The comparison uses the provider’s dollar-valued fields for both observations. Changes in prices, exchange rates and coverage can affect that total. It cannot identify redemptions or demand for Bitcoin.
Corporate ownership and financing
Strategy’s October 29 results reported 848,517 BTC as of October 25, unchanged from the October 18 balance. That observation ends before this report’s price week. On October 28 shareholders approved changes to preferred dividends, with STRC daily accrual slated to start November 1. The company reported $2.04 billion of STRC repurchases, including shares awaiting settlement, and $5.07 billion of USD assets. Those balances support financing obligations. They do not establish a fresh Bitcoin purchase or guarantee buying capacity at a particular market price.
Network operation and miner economics
Mempool’s seven completed daily hashrate intervals averaged 1,069.20 EH/s, compared with 1,072.69 EH/s in the prior edition. Each UTC endpoint represents the preceding completed day. Difficulty rose 5.54% to 148.36456 trillion at block 973728 on October 29 at 19:14 UTC. That adjustment reflects a different interval from the seven-day mean.
Hashrate Index displayed $33.37 per petahash per day, down from the prior snapshot of $35.87. This is miner revenue per unit of computation. Power costs, financing and fleet efficiency determine how much a particular miner earns. A higher difficulty setting gives no floor for Bitcoin’s price.
Custody and protocol risk
Bitcoin Core’s advisory index provides software-specific evidence. The separate Bitquery investigation into compromised hardware reports on-chain figures verified October 16. Its estimated $102 million concerns multiple assets across six chains. That evidence does not establish new losses this week or demonstrate containment. Custody exposure remains under observation independently of protocol operation.
Changes, continuities and contrary evidence
The prior week’s missing HODL entry is now reported as zero, completing its fund windows without changing the displayed totals. This week brings a substantive deterioration: the price-persistence condition failed, the five-session fund total turned negative, and the twenty-session total fell further below zero. The $80,000 and $76,000 thresholds and three-completed-day duration remain unchanged.
The strongest contrary evidence is four positive fund sessions, a positive weekly IBIT contribution, slightly lower real yields and Sunday’s price rebound. None of the completed daily references fell below $76,000. These observations temper the weaker assessment, but do not satisfy the complete recovery test. Custody evidence remains dated and scoped; no new loss or containment claim follows from an older investigation.
Horizon Posture
Long term — constructive, with custody risk under observation. The evidence for continued network operation survives this week’s outflows. Recurring settlement use and independently documented custody remediation would strengthen the thesis. Persistent protocol impairment, spreading verified custody losses or materially impaired financing would weaken it.
Medium term — recovery weakened. Both price persistence and the complete fund week failed, and the longer window fell further below zero. The strongest contrary evidence is that buyers added money on four days and IBIT stayed positive for the week. A renewed recovery case requires three consecutive completed daily references above $80,000, a positive November 2 to 6 fund window, and a positive twenty-session total no lower than its completed predecessor.
Tactical — cautious. Alternative.me registered 37, Fear, at November 2 00:00 UTC, versus 50 a week earlier. Its inputs partly reflect the market itself. Sunday’s price recovery and the absence of any daily reference below $76,000 argue against escalating to the full deterioration case. That case requires three consecutive completed daily references below $76,000 together with a complete negative five-session fund window.
Conditional paths and next tests
Constructive continuation requires all three conditions: three consecutive completed Coin Metrics daily references above $80,000; a complete positive November 2 to 6 fund window; and a positive twenty-session fund total no lower than its completed predecessor. Compare like-for-like windows and identify revisions explicitly. Price and five-session inflows alone do not satisfy the full test.
The deterioration case requires three consecutive completed daily references below $76,000 together with a complete negative five-session fund window. The current negative fund week meets only its demand component. Intermediate daily thresholds are research conditions, not validated support, resistance or transaction instructions.
Meridian strategic conclusion
Friday changed the balance of the week. The next question is whether buying can survive a full five-session window, price can rebuild three days above $80,000, and the twenty-session total can return to positive territory without deteriorating against its completed predecessor. Until the full combination is met, a bounce carries less weight than the deterioration in sustained demand.
Sources
Coin Metrics · CoinMarketCap · CoinGecko · Farside Investors · Federal Reserve H.15 · Federal Reserve H.4.1 · DefiLlama · Strategy · Mempool · Hashrate Index · Bitcoin Core · Bitquery · Alternative.me
Editorial Note
The Bitcoin Evidence-Led Series distinguishes sourced observations, descriptive calculations and Meridian’s qualitative assessments. Each edition reflects the evidence available at its stated cutoff; source data may subsequently be revised.
Meridian Signal uses artificial intelligence to assist source discovery, comparison, drafting and arithmetic verification. Final review and editorial responsibility rest with Meridian Signal. Material limitations are disclosed, and corrections to prior reporting are identified explicitly.
Research Disclosure
This report provides general informational and educational research, not personalized investment, legal or tax advice or an instruction to transact. Bitcoin is volatile, and loss of principal is possible. Assessments involve uncertainty; conditions and scenarios do not guarantee outcomes.
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